Cardano Dan's Newsletter - Issue #120
Right Timing
Quote of the Day
"Observe due measure, for right timing is in all things the most important factor."
― Hesiod
Being right about something isn’t the only important thing. You need to have the timing right too.
All sorts of people believed in crypto and blockchain in late 2017 and lost a lot of money because they had the timing wrong. On the slip side, there are many who believed even earlier or who invested during the bear market of 2018-19 that have made life-changing amounts of money.
Life is all about timing. Seeing what’s going to happen before other people do is really important. Acting on that conviction with the right timing is even more important.
In The News
China banned crypto again this morning. This isn’t the first time and it won’t be the last. Markets always knee-jerk lower on news like this. It’s undesirable to see news like this but I don’t panic when it happen like a lot of other people do.
The Evergrande situation is still working itself out. Yesterday ended with a negotiated resolution for local bondholders while foreign creditors are without clarity.
There are also questions about whether the fallout from Evergrande will be isolated to Chinese real estate markets or if the global economy will be impacted. The situation remains worth watching.
The Federal Reserve cleared the way to begin tapering monthly bond purchases in November of this year and that the tapering process could conclude in the middle of next year.
The update also suggested rates may increase at a faster-than-expected pace starting in 2022. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Cardano Updates
The agenda for the Cardano Summit is out!
Input Output shared that they’re unveiling a new integrated approach to DApps at the Cardano Summit. In involves a DApp store and a certification program for DApps as well to address discovery and quality assurance challenges.
I’ll see you at the summit. It’s going to be a great weekend of news and information!
Trybbles Series 1 Drop 6 is on Saturday at 1400 UTC. Picking up a Trybble is a great way to pregame for the Summit! Click the play button on the tweet below to check out the additions to the Trybbles collection from this drop.
Technical Analysis / Price Discussion
Cardano ADA tested the green trendline and the response was clear. It remains meaningful support.
I’ve zoomed out in the chart below to show the beginning of the bull run through the end of this calendar year. You can see the entire channel for the bull run (log view).
ADA is currently testing the middle of the channel which can serve as resistance or support depending on where it is at the time.
I’m expecting a run towards the top of the trendline beginning soon, perhaps as late as October. You can see the levels we have the potential to test based on the scale.
If I’m wrong and the trendline breaks, we can easily test the bottom of the channel. We’re likely to know what direction we’re headed soon.
Morning update. Markets nuked after the China news hit but Cardano is rebounding in a very strong way and attempting to lead the rest of the markets out of the FUD.
This newsletter is for entertainment and educational purposes. I’m not a financial advisor and you should do your own research and consult a financial advisor before investing in cryptocurrencies.
Thanks Dan. Great summary. Do you think LINK is better than ERGO for ADA oracle? I'm loading up on COTI each week but seems like the US Gov has it's eye on stablecoins. Thoughts on COTI future?
Great newsletter Dan. Very helpful. I’ve been out of the loop, purposely, and I did not know about the China news. Also, great TA. Thanks again